柠檬花园--加拿大第十山地师 - Part 2

[四有心人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

规律探秘：周1-3，大跌跌跌。周4-5，小涨涨。

 

[SallySun2007]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

是师长说的，婷婷拿去当了签名！

莎莉的30个俯卧撑是逃不掉鸟！罚你一次做完！RR

加大处罚力度，

 

[lemon25]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

规律探秘：周1-3，大跌跌跌。周4-5，小涨涨。

作者: willa_sun
很沮丧, 06.8底FN, 08.6.20收到拒签信,理由分数不够.
请问, 隔多长时间可以再申请? 现在是新政策,如果提前考再雅思,到S2时是否会过期? 如果改递hk,是否会好些?
大家有何建议?

是的，拒签的直接原因都是分数不够。

 

[SallySun2007]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

股神指出：要趁机出货

股神也根本不知道啥时是趁机
除非股仙、股圣、股王。。。。。大家合力，但也不知道啥时是趁机？

 

[wgzyl]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

眼下算BJ的鼎盛期了，网上人数依然不及HK一半。

 

[SallySun2007]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

眼下算BJ的鼎盛期了，网上人数依然不及HK一半。

有人说：北京的移友不上网滴。

 

[SallySun2007]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

或者说：北京的移友找不到家园。HOHO

 

[HP自由人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

天气相当的热

 

[HP自由人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

或者说：北京的移友找不到家园。HOHO

被打击习惯了，一时还适应不了目前的局面，前两天拿visa的都疯了一半。

 

[tcly]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

大家好

 

[HP自由人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

股神指出：要趁机出货

 

[HP自由人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

大家好

天才好！

 

[wgzyl]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

谷教授下午讲授：种群灭绝的风险随机模型

 

[四有心人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

被打击习惯了，一时还适应不了目前的局面，前两天拿visa的都疯了一半。

疯乃假象，实际这些筒子都心如止水水水水。。。。。。。

 

[四有心人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

谷教授下午讲授：种群灭绝的风险随机模型

turn to page 5 ?

 

[wgzyl]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level.

(nature)

 

[lemon25]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

HK人数多，但是一盘散沙！

 

[四有心人]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level.

(nature)

OMG，faint!!!

 

[lemon25]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

HK的苦日子才刚刚开始，已经有人受不了了...

 

[lemon25]

回复: 2005年北京Case议事大厅~柠檬花园/第十山地师

TO TURN A BIRD !